Brexit, backed by the DUP against the wishes of the Northern Ireland electorate, has had a transformational impact on the campaign for Irish unity

Noel Doran. Former Editor. Irish News. Belfast. Monday, October 28, 2024.

IT is always possible to draw different conclusions from separate opinion surveys, allowing for the usual margins of error, so, when questions which do not involve a fixed schedule are involved, it is sensible to examine trends over a prolonged period.

The Good Friday Agreement, for completely valid reasons, took a vague approach in 1998 to the prospect of an Irish unity referendum, and it cannot be disputed that no consequential discussions on the subject followed for many years.

Circumstances have been changing slowly but surely and, while the timing and outcome of a border poll remains uncertain, it is clear that the wider debate is now firmly emerging.

The details of the latest initiative from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Northern Ireland General Election Survey 2024, have been closely studied by those on both sides of the argument since they were first published by this newspaper last week, and while at the most basic level the data indicates that the largest group of voters still favor maintaining the status quo, it is the longer-term patterns which are hard to avoid.

It is striking that, even though some observers believe the methodology employed understates nationalist leanings, the latest ESRC findings show that support for the union has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time, sitting at 48.6 per cent, with this figure dropping by more than 10 percentage points over the last decade, and by almost five points in the last five years alone.

Backing for unity is rising at an almost identical rate, up by five points since 2019 to 33.7 per cent, and a particularly telling statistic is that under 25s who expressed a view are evenly split on the union, with exactly 47.7 per cent on each side.

Unionists who believe that nationalists are trying to extract the maximum benefit from the UK’s marginal vote to withdraw from the European Union in 2016, against the wishes of the Northern Ireland electorate, are probably right, and Brexit can be plainly seen as the biggest boost to the campaign for Irish unity in living memory.

It has had nothing less than a transformational impact, as the ESRC statistics confirm, and the evidence is that the unionist advantage which appeared to be impregnable for generations is being relentlessly eroded.

No serious commentator has suggested that unionists might be ready to switch allegiance in a border poll, even before the latest developments in both Belfast and Dublin which have significantly damaged Sinn Féin’s credibility.

However, it will be remembered that Peter Robinson, justifiably regarded as the leading unionist tactician of his era, confidently told a DUP gathering in 2013 that Catholic votes, from those he described as “culturally Irish”, would secure the union in a referendum, which he insisted would be at least half a century away in any event.

The bigger picture has altered substantially since then, after errors of judgment were made in all sections of our society, and a verdict will ultimately be delivered by nationalists, unionists and the unaligned.

Peter Robinson’s latest successor as DUP leader, Gavin Robinson, acknowledged this reality in a speech last week, and it would be fascinating to learn the specific views of both Mr. Robinsons on recent interventions from unionist figures, including some of their party colleagues, over Irish culture.

Continuing onslaughts against GAA members and Irish language enthusiasts, even those of primary school age, have been well documented, and the Assembly questions from Timothy Gaston of the Traditional Unionist Voice which emerged last week represented a new low.

Mr. Gaston, an MLA in North Antrim, demanded to know if a visit by an All-Ireland-winning GAA player to Armagh fire station, in a different constituency more than 50 miles away, was a breach of employment regulations.

The player brought along the Sam Maguire Cup while offering his gratitude to the emergency staff who attended a road traffic tragedy in which three people – two of his close relatives and a friend – were killed last year.

It was a pathetic complaint in every way, which was firmly rejected by the relevant minister, Mike Nesbitt of the Ulster Unionist Party, but it will have an influence on thinking well beyond North Antrim.

Although we need to closely examine health, education, economic, environmental and other issues before a referendum is confirmed, it is beyond doubt that the attitudes exemplified by Mr. Gaston will also be a factor.

n.doran@irishnews.com